$SPY TOP 20

$SPY and the $QQQ are back in sync again and the price action bouncing at $508 to a new higher high reaffirms our belief that the trend continues to be to the upside to at least Wave B at the 50 WMA at $566 over the coming weeks.

Big variables right now of course will be Earnings, ongoing trade talks, Jolts, Payroll and PCE....which are all out this week.

So the level I believe that needs to hold this week is $508 again and if the bulls can continue to hold here then we can complete a move up to the 50 WMA at $566 at the very least.

There is clearly a lot of uncertainty in the market right now and I would not be buying anything right now that is not in Wave C or looking like it has completed Wave C on individual charts.

The Mega Caps have already bounced well, so if you have not added already, like we did with $AMZN, then I suggest waiting for the Wave B test next, bulls will need to convert the 50 WMA to support....bears want a rejection at this level, to decide the next direction.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:
📅 U.S. Economic Calendar: April 28 – May 2, 2025

Monday, April 28

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (April)
  Provides insight into manufacturing activity in Texas. ​

Tuesday, April 29

• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February)
  Measures changes in residential real estate prices.

• CB Consumer Confidence Index (April)
  Assesses consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.

• JOLTS Job Openings (March)
  Indicates labor demand by measuring job vacancies

Wednesday, April 30

• ADP Employment Change (April)
  Estimates private sector employment growth.

• Q1 GDP (Advance Estimate)
  Initial reading on economic growth; consensus is a slowdown to 0.4% from 2.4% in Q4 2024.

• Core PCE Prices (Q1)
  Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.

• Chicago PMI (April)
  Reflects business conditions in the Chicago region.

• Pending Home Sales (March)
  Tracks contract signings for home purchases. ​

Thursday, May 1

• Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending April 26)
  Measures new unemployment claims; consensus at 224K.

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
  Gauges manufacturing sector health; expected to remain below 50, indicating contraction.

Friday, May 2

• Non-Farm Payrolls (April)
  Key employment indicator; consensus at 129K new jobs.

• Unemployment Rate (April)
  Expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

• Average Hourly Earnings (April)
  Monitors wage inflation.

• Factory Orders (March)
  Provides data on new orders for manufactured goods. ​

💼 Corporate Earnings Highlights

This week is pivotal for corporate earnings, featuring reports from major companies across various sectors:​

• Technology: Apple (Thursday), Amazon (Thursday), Microsoft (Wednesday), Meta Platforms (Wednesday)

• Financials: Visa, Mastercard, PayPal (Tuesday)

• Healthcare: Pfizer, AstraZeneca (Tuesday); Eli Lilly, Amgen (Thursday)

• Energy: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell (Friday)

• Consumer Goods: Coca-Cola (Tuesday), McDonald's (Thursday), Starbucks (Tuesday)

• Industrials: Caterpillar (Wednesday), General Motors (Thursday), UPS (Tuesday)​

These earnings reports will provide insights into how companies are navigating current economic challenges, including trade tensions and inflationary pressures. ​

⚠️ Market Context

Investors are closely monitoring

• Trade Policies: President Trump's recent tariffs, particularly the 25% levy on car parts effective this week, are influencing market dynamics.

• Federal Reserve Stance: With the upcoming Fed meeting on May 6–7, economic indicators released this week could impact interest rate decisions.

• Global Economic Indicators: Data from the Eurozone and emerging markets will also play a role in shaping investor sentiment.